Pakistan's Balancing Act
On the political front. Hamid Karzai's rather ill-timed warning to Pakistan a few days ago that the Afghan Army has the right to carry out operations inside Pak territory is a dark omen of the direction the war in Afghanistan-Pakistan could take in the near future. It's no accident that Pakistan is having such a difficult time dealing with the militants in their territory. Why, I have to ask, is it so difficult for a million-man army, trained and equipped by the most advanced army in the world (the U.S.) having such a difficult time defeating a rag-tag band of religious zealots? Incompetence is too facile an answer.
What makes more sense to me is that Pakistan's establishment knows it has to tread lightly with its military or risk its disintegration. Loyalties within the armed forces, especially at the lower ranks, lean heavily toward the Islamists. That structure is another victim of the Soviet war in Afghanistan when fundamentalist ideology was deeply ingrained in the Pakistani army and religious education was expanded throughout the poorer segments of Pakistani society. It's important to remember that the Pak army is not a conscript force. It is voluntary and the lower ranks are largely made up of poor men who have little opportunity to earn a living elsewhere. These are the same poor who are the targets of fundamentalist madrassas. Their road to the army passes through these schools, where they are first indoctrinated with an extreme form of Islam (and in some cases, trained in guerrilla warfare). Once their so-called education is complete, they enter the workforce where they quickly realize that the 'knowledge' they've gained is useless. The only future for them lies in the military.
The lower ranks of the Pak army are filled with these men, men who have a programmed hatred for the West and view the war in Afghanistan as a crusader invasion. For them militant leaders like Mullah Fazlulla, Mehsud and Mangal Bagh are freedom fighters battling the yoke of infidel imperialism. The Pak government, to these men, is a poodle of the West. If that same government orders them to crush the fundamentalist movements, they could very well rebel.
Pakistan's leaders realize this, hence the deal making in Swat and Waziristan - the soft approach. In Swat, they've agreed to let Fazlulla's forces implement their inhuman version of Islamic Law. In Khyber agency, Mangal Bagh has consolidated his power and is expanding his influence into the Orakzai Agency. Government forces have not intervened, instead allowing local tribal opponents to confront Bagh's influence. A tribal war has ensued (only very recently was a truce declared).
I met Mangal Bagh in one of his safehouses in Bara a few months ago. He impressed me with his charisma. He was a very self-assured leader who spoke clearly of his desire to bring the 'true' Islam back to Pakistan. Like the Taliban before him in Afghanistan, his militia had made the Bara district, which was a hub of kidnappings, robberies, and murders, safer. He was diplomatic in his perspectives on the Pakistani government, careful not to directly confront them at a stage when he was still consolidating his power base. But he offered some veiled warnings, namely that the authorities should not interfere in what he claimed was a popular movement.
This is how these militants operate. They emerge in a neglected region, where government incompetence has abandoned the local people to the whims of criminals. They eliminate these criminals (and often take over their enterprises - in Mangal Bagh's case, control of drug smuggling). They speak convincingly of the degradation of Islamic values which they claim is the cause of the peoples' woes and proceed to impose their own version of Islamic Law. The peace this brings is initially welcomed by the people. But then they realize at what cost - freedom of choice, the ability to determine their own destinies. Over time, they realize life hasn't improved for them under this radical Islamist leadership but by then, it's too late. The Baghs and the Mehsuds have consolidated their power. Dissension is suicide.
I met Mangal Bagh at the early stages of his rise. Before brutality had set in. What didn't impress me about him was his militia - a juvenile band of thugs who looked like they couldn't hit a beachball at ten paces. And yet they were in control in Bara despite the fact that Pakistan's Frontier Corps had a presence in the main market. Why? One incident was, for me, telling:
After interviewing Bagh, I received his permission to walk around the market area and take some photographs. "No problem," he told me. "My men will accompany you. You will not be harmed." I walked around openly, until I was stopped by one of the Frontier Corps soldiers. He was not as accommodating as Bagh. "You can't photograph here!" he barked. I told him that Mangal Bagh had given me permission and pointed out the two armed militia men who had been shadowing me on my tour. The soldier wavered. "Oh," he said. "Okay. Go ahead."
It wasn't fear, I felt, that had softened the soldier's resolve. It was, rather, respect - respect for the peace Bagh had brought to the area, respect for his defiance of the Musharraf regime, and more worryingly, respect for the Islamo-fascist ideology that men like Bagh represent. If the Pak army is infiltrated with this ideology, then any escalation in the war in Afghanistan, any move that brings that war to Pakistan will be a total disaster. Pakistan's army will fragment leading to a full-blown civil war. And at this point, I fear who would win that war.
Labels: Afghanistan, Bagh, Islamic militancy, Khyber, Mangal, militant, Pakistan, Swat, terrorism, war









